Market Insider – Investing Ireland August 2021

Investing Ireland August 2021
Investing in Ireland 2021

Fiat 50 motors on! – Investing Ireland August 2021

Last month marked the 50th anniversary of the “Nixon Shock” of August, 1971, whereby the US dollar’s unpegging from its Gold Standard straitjacket served to liberate the fiat currency printing presses of the global financial system in a manner that has fuelled a debt-financed asset-inflation odyssey for three generations of investors.

Equity markets duly celebrated this landmark anniversary with their 7th consecutive month of gains, that Worry Wall of Delta variant, peak growth (for economies and earnings), inflation risk, Fed taper talk and now Afghanistan still being climbed in resolute fashion by a TINA investment community amply lubricated by the excess liquidity drip-feed of current central bank policy settings.

The MSCI World advanced by a further 2.5% in August, its recovery from the March, 2020 lows now exceeding 100% (dividends included).

Value indices once again lagged Growth on both sides of the Atlantic, although the gap narrowed from previous months, with financials extending their recovery back towards cycle peaks.

The S&P500 secured it’s 54th record close ytd above 4,500 by month’s-end, whilst the STOXX 600 enjoyed 10 straight gains, its longest run of consecutive daily advances since 2006. Equity markets were not without their mid-month swoon, however, this a recurring (and perhaps options-expiry related) feature of the past several months.

Some acute intra-month volatility across bond and commodity complexes also; US real yields rebounded sharply from fresh record lows (-1.22% in 10yr TIPS) as taper talk resurfaced, Gold endured a $115 flash crash to sub-$1700 early-August before recovering above its $1800 pivot point, and Brent crude tested both ends of a $65-75 range-trade as COVID uncertainties abounded.

By contrast, currency markets were an oasis of calm, with Eur/USD still engaged in a sideways meander above its perceived 1.1600 floor.

Equities – Investing Ireland August 2021

Another month of gains for global stock markets, their 7th straight advance, both S&P500 and STOXX 600 indices now reporting total returns of 20%+ on a ytd basis.

A stellar Q2 corporate earnings season remained the primary impulse, although the Delta variant did impact on sectoral performance, the more defensive Nasdaq (+4.1%) once again showing the way on Wall Street.

Emerging markets (+2.6%) enjoyed their best performance since January, courtesy of renewed liquidity support from the People’s Bank of China, while the US Senate’s passage of a $550bn bipartisan infrastructure package was a timely reminder that overall policy support for economies and markets is not yet sated, the Fed’s taper talk notwithstanding. 

Bonds Investing Ireland August 2021

On the surface, bond markets were becalmed in August, with US Treasuries reporting their smallest move (-0.2%) in either direction for more than a year. However, yields did gyrate materially intra-month, with investors torn between the impact of a globally spreading Delta variant and that potential policy pivot by the major central banks.

The key 10yr Treasury yield touched a low of 1.13% early in the month, before an avalanche of Fed taper talk forced an abrupt about-turn to a 1.37% high late in the period.

The sell-off in Treasuries was compounded by renewed weakness in European government bonds, where the region’s highest headline inflation rate (+3.0%) since November, 2011 raised the spectre of a PEPP (asset purchase) dial-back by the ECB. 

Currencies Investing Ireland August 2021

A late-Summer lull descended over the foreign exchange markets last month, with relatively modest changes on the major crosses, although the US Dollar Index did manage to eke out a further 0.5% gain, while Sterling lost some ground on both USD and Euro fronts.

The dominant Eur/USD cross had an interesting month, recovering steadily from 1.1660 lows mid-August to a 1.1810 close. This exchange rate is now tracking relative short-term interest rate movements quite closely, and it has been the firming up of Euribor quotes in the midst of strengthening Euroland data-flow and some quasi-hawkish soundings from certain ECB Governors that is now supporting a revival of investor interest in the single currency.

Commodities Investing Ireland August 2021

Although the CRB index flatlined in August following its recent steady gains, the energy components suffered their first decline since March, with both WTI (-7.4%) and Brent crude (-4.4%) selling off on concerns over slowing demand in China and the Delta variant more generally.

Industrial metals prices were also softer for the same reasons, whilst Gold prices endured a rollercoaster month, rebounding from a $115 flash crash in early-August to close broadly unchanged, that $1800 valuation level still exhibiting a magnetic attraction, be it  from above and below.

Asset Market Outlook Investing Ireland August 2021

  • Equity markets now entering their seasonally most vulnerable period, with the build-up of more defensive investor positioning signalling correction concerns
  • A mild pullback is certainly overdue although, remarkably, stocks are already cheapening on standard valuation metrics (both absolute and relative to bonds), whilst the degree of overall policy support (monetary and fiscal) remains acute
  • Tentative indications of slowly declining Delta spread following two months of gains harbinger of a “Reopening Trade” revival to favour rotation back to cyclical stocks 
  • Corrective rally in global bond markets has seemingly now run its course, the prospective dial-back of Fed and ECB asset purchases ensuring more adverse supply/demand conditions and a return to higher yields
  • USD rally finally running out of steam on fading relative interest-rate support, with Eur/USD eyeing a key 1.1950 retest, and scope for speculative longs to rebuild after a 3-mth flush-out
  • Gold prices still not straying too far away from their $1800 pivot, with ETF holdings now stabilised and Asian jewellery demand in recovery mode; needs to vault $1830 for breakout

Asset Allocation Investing Ireland August 2021 Outlook

                                  Equities      Bonds       Credit      Forex/Euro

US                                         +1              -2              -1                 -1

Euroland                              +2              -2              -1                 N/A

UK                                         +2              -2              -1                  0

Asia                                       +1              -1              -1                 -1

Code +3/-3 very attractive/ very unattractive

Financial Market Performance Data Investing Ireland August 2021 Outlook [1]

MSCI EM2.6-6.70.2-4.32.9
S&P 5003.
FTSE 1002.
Gov Bonds
Corp Bonds
EUR HIGH GRADE0.61.20.4-0.80.3
OIL – WTI-7.40.710.8-6.841.2
Source: DB Research

Next steps

You can read our more investing in Ireland analysis here.

You can check out our other guides on Investing in Ireland here.

You can find out where to get individual investing in Ireland and financial advice in your area here.

Investing in Ireland 2021 – July Recap

Investing in Ireland 2021
Investing in Ireland 2021

Olympian Efforts – Investing in Ireland 2021

The struggle against COVID-19 is proving to be a global endeavour of Olympian proportions, but now the marathon efforts of the past 18 months have turned into something of a sprint, being a straight run-off between Vaccination and (delta) Variant in the desperate pursuit of economic reopening and societal normalisation.

Although latest investor sentiment surveys portray the virus as a fading “tail risk” for economies and markets, it is also the case that crowded positioning in the “Reopening Trade” for undervalued cyclical stocks has suffered meaningful profit-taking pressures over the past 10 weeks.

In consequence, the MSCI World Value index, which outperformed its Growth equivalent by as much as 12 pps from the start of this year to mid-May, has now surrendered this outperformance amidst re-rotation out of cyclical names (energy, banks, industrials) into more defensive plays (tech, healthcare).

For all that, equity markets continue to find ways to move higher, extending 2021’s clear pattern of rolling corrections under the bonnet (to SPACS, Meme stocks, Crypto and now Cyclicals), whilst overall indices grind higher to successive all-time peaks.

The MSCI World rose by a further 1.7% in July, its 6th straight monthly gain, a feat shared by the S&P500 and Europe’s STOXX600 which, in the latter case, is the longest winning streak since Draghi’s “whatever it takes” rally of 2012/13.

Clearly, equity markets are beneficiaries of sustained policy and liquidity support, factors which are also sustaining bond market performance in the face of accelerating inflation rates globally.

Benchmark 10yr yields declined by 25bps on both sides of the Atlantic last month, their biggest one-month drop since the height of the Pandemic panic in March, 2020.

This decline in yields prompted a recovery in Gold prices above $1800, amidst renewed (if tentative) ETF inflows after more than 6 months of sales.

Equities – Investing in Ireland 2021

A sharp contrast in equity market returns last month between the developed and emerging economies, that 1.7% gain in the MSCI World compared with a 7.1% decline in the MSCI EM.

As China’s abrupt regulatory clampdown on its internet and technology companies weighed very heavily on both the Shanghai Composite (-5.4%) and Hang Seng (-9.9%) indices, leaving the EM index now barely in positive territory on a ytd basis.

Lack of contagion towards the US and European markets is perhaps best explained by the insulation provided by a robust corporate earnings season now in full flow. However, the FTSE100 did snap a 5-mth winning streak with a marginal (-0.1%) decline.

Bonds Investing in Ireland 2021

The growing conundrum of declining bond yields in the midst of strengthening inflation rates globally continued to fixate last month, with 10yr benchmark Treasury yields falling by more than 25bps to a 1.22% close, low since mid-February.

Intriguingly, this decline in US yields was wholly attributable to the real yield component, whereas “breakeven” inflation was slightly higher on the month.

Sliding US bond yields were broadly matched in Europe, where 10yr benchmark Bund yields declined by 25bps to -0.46%, their biggest monthly drop since August, 2019.

Currencies Investing in Ireland 2021

A traditional mid-Summer lull in trading conditions was most apparent in foreign exchange markets last month, with the major currency pairs confined to generally sideways moves within their well-defined ranges.

The USD trade-weighted index slipped marginally in July, the previous rebalancing of predominantly short USD positioning having now substantially run its course.

Eur/USD found solid support close to ytd lows at 1.1750, ending the month with a topside probe towards the 1.1900 area, whilst Sterling responded to a more hopeful COVID-19 trajectory in a fully-reopened UK economy, the Eur/Stg cross retesting its ytd low circa 85c. 

Commodities Investing in Ireland 2021

Commodity markets enjoyed further broad-based gains last month, the CRB Index rising by 2.2% for its 4th straight gain (and 8 of the last 9), this index now scaling 6-year peaks.

Whilst oil prices have been leading the charge for much of 2021, last month proved a more volatile affair, with Brent crude completing a $76-67-76 round-trip amidst swirling uncertainty over the latest OPEC+ production accord.

Industrial metals rebounded from recent corrective pressures, as indeed did precious metals, with Gold prices clawing their way back to the key $1830 resistance area in response to the renewed slippage of both real yields and the USD.

Asset Market Outlook Investing in Ireland 2021

  • Equity markets still climbing a wall of worry (Delta variant, inflation, policy risks), testament to the potency of current macroeconomic, earnings and liquidity supports.
  • Stellar corporate earnings recovery mitigating equity overvaluation concerns, whilst renewed decline in bond yields reinforcing the relative valuation argument.
  • Significant investor positioning flush-out of “reflation trade” favourites (financials, energy, industrials) harbinger of renewed engagement as global growth jitters fade.
  • Conundrum of lower bond yields in the face of rising inflation risks perhaps best explained by the “financial repression” realities of central bank policymaking via zero interest rates and open-ended asset purchase programmes (QE).
  • Renewed decline in 10yr Treasury real yields to fresh record lows portending catch-up weakness for the US Dollar following last month’s disconnect; Eur/USD now targeting a 1.1950 vault for bullish continuation.
  • Gold ETF liquidations now seemingly having run their course, allowing prices to base-build above recent $1680 and $1760 lows; $1830 the next barrier to overcome ahead of a re-run to the $1900 area.

Asset Allocation Investing in Ireland 2021 Outlook

                                   Equities          Bonds       Credit       Forex/Euro

US                                           +1                  -2               -1                 -1

Euroland                               +2                   -2               -1                N/A

UK                                           +2                   -2               -1                  0

Asia                                         0                    -1               -1                 -1

Code +3/-3 very attractive/ very unattractive

Financial Market Performance Data Investing in Ireland 2021 Outlook [1]


Next steps

You can read our more investing in Ireland analysis here.

You can check out our other guides on Investing in Ireland here.

You can find out where to get individual investing in Ireland and financial advice in your area here.

Best Investments Ireland July 2021

Invest Rocket Icon

So what are the best investments Ireland July 2021?

best investments ireland july 2021

It was a case of high fives all round for global stock markets last month, the major indices rounding off their half-term report with a fifth consecutive advance on both monthly and quarterly bases, and the broadest barometer of US stocks (Wilshire 5000) now doubled in value from its 2020 Pandemic trough [1].

Nonetheless, whilst equity markets ended June atop fresh record peaks, declining trading volumes and narrowing breadth flagged a more hesitant investor base, prompted by an abrupt sentiment shift from inflation concerns to growth jitters on the wall of worry front.

In consequence, the ubiquitous global reflation trade succumbed to profit-taking reflows from cyclical to secular growth plays, spurred both by the rise of the COVID-19 delta variant and a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve, its Dot Plot of prospective policy changes flagging possible “lift-off” for higher rates in 2022. 

The MSCI World rose a further 1.5% in June, cementing ytd gains of 13.3%, and with both US and European indices posting their best H1 gains since 1998. US stocks outperformed last month, and the Nasdaq especially so (+5.5%), whilst the excess return of Russell 1000 Growth over its Value equivalent (+7.4%) almost matched the March, 2020 dysfunction.

Bond markets were mixed, a sell-off in shorter-dated maturities contrasting with longer-dated gains in a violent curve-flattening reposition.

In response, the US Dollar enjoyed its best month since November, 2016 (+2.9% per TWI), whilst Gold suffered its sharpest decline (-7.2%) since the same period.

Further weakness also for that Digital Gold disruptor Bitcoin (-5.7%), whereas Black Gold extended its stellar recovery amidst an ever-tightening physical market, with WTI crude revisiting 2018 peaks circa $75 for ytd gains of 51.4%.

  1. Equities – Best Investments Ireland July 2021
  2. Bonds – Best Investments Ireland July 2021
  3. Currencies – Best Investments Ireland July 2021
  4. Commodities – Best Investments Ireland July 2021
  5. Asset Market Outlook – Best Investments Ireland July 2021

Equities – Best Investments Ireland July 2021

Equity markets added to their 2021 gains last month, but performances varied amongst and between the major blocs, with profit-taking impulses unfolding in the “Global Reopening” trade following seven months of gains.

Although both the S&P500 and STOXX 600 scaled fresh record peaks in June, directional leadership now reverted to some of the more defensive plays (healthcare, technology), whilst COVID-sensitive stocks (travel and leisure, banks) lagged materially. In consequence, the Nasdaq enjoyed its best performance of 2021 to date (absolute and relative terms), whereas the more cyclically-attuned DJIA suffered its first monthly loss in five.

Bonds – Best Investments Ireland July 2021

A lively month in fixed income space, whereby a perceived hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve regarding its ultra-accommodative policy stance prompted a spike in short-dated Treasury yields in tandem with declining yields for longer-dated bonds.

Investors have long positioned for steeper yield curves on the presumption of Fed tolerance for some inflation overshoot in a recovering US (and global) economy, but concern that policymakers may now be having some second thoughts on that score (given recent elevated inflation readings) triggered a sharp position unwind last month.

In consequence, 2yr Treasury yields surged by 13bps to 15-mth highs at 0.27%, alongside a commensurate decline in 10yr yields to 1.47%. European bond markets were more becalmed by comparison, given no change in the ECB’s dovish disposition.

Currencies – Best Investments Ireland July 2021

The US Dollar enjoyed its best monthly performance of the year to date, its trade-weighted index rising by 2.9%, with across-the-board gains against major and minor currencies alike.

Key to last month’s rebound was the spectre of an earlier than anticipated tightening of US monetary policy, with interest rate differentials now moving in support of the currency and eliciting a short squeeze of bearish USD positions in forex futures markets.

Eur/USD recoiled from 1.2255 peaks early-June to a 1.1845 end-month low, whilst Stg/USD also about-turned sharply from its 3-year highs above 1.4200, sentiment here also buffeted by the risks posed by a surging COVID-19 delta variant on UK economic reopening plans.

Commodities – Best Investments Ireland July 2021

The CRB index rose by a further 3.7% in June, but it proved a mixed bag, with strength in energy and soft commodities contrasting with weakness across the metals complex (both industrial and precious).

Shrinking inventories continue to support the rebound in oil prices, with spot WTI (+10.8%) securing ytd gains in excess of 50% at $75 a barrel. However, high-flying Copper prices endured their sharpest monthly decline since March, 2020 (-8.1%), duly trimming ytd gains to 22.1%, whilst Gold (-7.2%) reversed all of the previous month’s rise in response to that more hawkish tilt to Fed policy guidance. 

Asset Market Outlook – Best Investments Ireland July 2021

  • Equity indices continue to probe fresh record peaks, and volatility has declined to post-Pandemic lows, but narrowing market breadth and fading volumes betray a certain bullish hesitancy at current fully-invested levels
  • COVID delta variant may prove a short-lived distraction, but a more durable concern is whether financial markets are now passing their peaks of policy support, liquidity, economic growth and earnings momentum
  • Post-peak environment (macro, policy) apt to remain highly supportive of further equity market gains, not least as EPS outpaces share-price growth and mitigates valuation constraints 
  • Ostensible bond market pivot from inflation risk (bearish) to growth risk (bullish) looks decidedly premature; recent curve flattening is more corrective than trend-reversing, and a Fed late-Summer “taper” threat can reignite the steepening trend
  • Currency markets locked in historically tight ranges, the USD thusfar resistant to either bearish or bullish breakouts; Eur/USD revisiting lower echelons of a 1.17-1.23 meander, awaiting EU’s vaccination vs variant outturn before renewed topside test
  • Gold’s failed test of $1920 resistance and ensuing sell-off to $1760 lows jars with renewed weakness in real yields; recovery requires early foothold above $1830 area

Asset Allocation

                                          Equities                Bonds             Credit           Forex/Euro

US                                             +1                       -2                      -1                       -1

Euroland                                  +2                       -2                      -1                      N/A

UK                                             +2                       -2                      -1                        0

Asia                                           +1                       -1                      -1                       -1

Code +3/-3 very attractive/ very unattractive

Next steps

You can read our more investing in Ireland analysis here.

You can check out our other guides on Investing in Ireland here.

You can find out where to get individual investing in Ireland and financial advice in your area here.

Reddit Investing – In Manic Markets, Pied Pipers Call The Tune


Of all the take-aways to be gleaned from the recent Reddit Investing GameStop debacle, perhaps the most salient is that, in these increasingly exuberant financial markets awash with excess liquidity, flows threaten to dominate fundamentals in the accelerated pursuit of investment returns.

This seems especially so in markets now “democratised” by a newly empowered retail investor class, emboldened in its beliefs by those “disruptive” provocations of a select coterie of visionary (nay, cult-like) cheer-leaders.

Populist forces – the rise of Reddit investing

It was only a matter of time before the populist forces wreaking havoc across political and economic landscapes in the social media age turned their ire towards financial markets. Indeed, if there is a surprise, it is that it has taken so long to manifest.

The Occupy Wall Street protests stem from 2011, and perceived inequalities between Wall and Main Streets have deepened all the more acutely in the interim.

Doubtless stock markets were protected from disruption by higher barriers to entry; whereas seismic political change was deliverable via well-orchestrated Twitter accounts and hashtag campaigns (think Five Star in Italy), stock market upheavals required finance – lots of it – and presumably no little dollop of expertise.

Reddit Investing
NEW YORK CITY-MAY 2012: Occupy Wall street demonstrators march down Broadway toward lower Manhattan.

Those barriers to entry have come crashing down in the Age of Covid, with the greatest explosion in retail trading activity since the dying days of the Dot-Com bubble.

A vast army of primarily youthful investors have emerged with spare cash (support payments), spare time (lockdown) and pre-disposed gambling mindsets.

They have been drawn in their millions to online trading apps such as Robinhood, whose onscreen trappings “gamify” the investment experience, and whose product offerings of zero commissions, fractional share purchases and cheap leverage are nobly designed to “democratise finance for all”.

In so doing, Robinhood provides its 13m merry men a platform and Reddit investing a collective from which to disrupt a financial system perceived to have disregarded them for years.

This new retail buying frenzy has been broadly confined to a relatively narrow clutch of stocks (especially in high-risk tech names) that resonate with their own lifestyle experiences and aspirations, and with scant regard for standard valuation metrics when set against the simple conviction that investments are going up (eg Tesla, Bitcoin).

The Reddit investors engage in “meme investing” discussions in online chat rooms such as Reddit-Wallstreetbets (8.9m members or “degenerates”), whilst paying fervent homage to such evangelical innovators as Elon Musk, Chamath Palihapitiya and Cathie Wood, all three idolised as “disruptive” bedfellows in their anti-establishment crusade.

Reddit Investing – the Pied piper-in-chief

Redit investing
Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Washington DC USA. 21 Of January 2021

These innovators, in turn, have long understood the untapped potential for retail investor flows in the digital age, and have positioned themselves to co-opt it.

Reddit investing Pied Piper-in-chief Elon Musk’s successful pledge to “burn” short sellers of Tesla stock was aided and abetted by a tsunami of retail buying last year.

Palihapitiya, who has brought serial SPAC issuance to an art form, furnishes simplified one-pagers on each investment thesis for speedy online dissemination, whilst Wood’s Ark Investment Management, whose disruptive-technology funds are now the hottest ETFs in town, freely distributes its research and daily trading activities so that social media may tag along.

Small wonder that both Musk and Palihapitiya were quick to publicly align themselves (in tweets and deeds) with Reddit’s GameStop insurrection. Small wonder too that all three are table-thumping devotees of Tesla, and Bitcoin.

For these investors, and their legions of acolytes, price advances are no longer self-limiting in the manner traditional securities analysis might dictate. Rather, it is the intoxicating allure of “disruptive” narratives, whereby bountiful cash-flows are predicted well into the future, that proffer “present value” support to elevated asset prices, a fortiori when discounted by historically debased interest rates.

Freed from the shackles of present-day realities, flow dynamics duly dominate in a self-feeding speculation that begets ever rising prices. In such environment, a barely profitable Tesla may sport its trailing P/E multiple of 1091x as a veritable badge of honour.

Although Reddit investor’s YOLO (You Only Live Once) army happily ignores valuation arguments in its pursuit of gains, institutional investors are naturally more conditioned by fundamental approaches to stock or market selection.

This discipline has been slowly eroding, however, thanks to those “disruptive” influences of passive index-investing and algorithmic trading. Now, in the midst of buoyant stock markets, the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) factor is also staking its claim, with fund managers eschewing potential career-ending decisions to avoid expensive high-flyers and selling their souls to the momentum trade.

To cap it all, Elon Musk’s latest decision to place $1.5bn of Tesla cash in Bitcoin has united two speculative manias in a potentially virtuous circle to add fuel to the fire of both, with Tesla’s market gains from barely 5 weeks of Bitcoin “HODLing” exceeding its lifetime profits in EV manufacturing.

Note that Tesla’s $19bn cash balances at end-2020 were substantially the result of equity fund-raising into a frenzied share-price rally. Such effective exchange of Tesla currency (ie equity) for Bitcoin crypto currency has all the hallmarks of a Faustian pact designed to self-feed investor exuberance to euphoric extremes.

Don’t fight the Fed – Reddit & Gamestop fall to earth

Presiding over such market froth is the Federal Reserve who, along with all the other major central banks have, through their own price-insensitive asset-purchase programmes for several years past, distorted all “fair value” considerations for bond and equity investments.

These policymakers continue to naysay any suggestions that current liquidity excesses and attendant “financial repression” pose financial instability risks. Their position remains that, should policy ultimately stoke irrationally exuberant markets, they retain an arsenal of macro-prudential tools with which to lean against the tide.

Investors won’t hold their breath. Margin requirements are unchanged in the United States since 1974, whilst all Fed Chairman from Greenspan onwards have revealed preferences to clean up the aftermath of any asset bubble rather than attempt to prick them beforehand.

With forward guidance on zero policy rates now extended to 2023 and beyond, the “punch bowl” which currently fuels financial market froth is not being taken away any time soon.

shutterstock 431865355
WASHINGTON, DC, USA – FEBRUARY 16, 2005: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies before Congress.

Of course elevated valuations can simply collapse under the force of their own weight, be it at an individual stock or broader market level. This was the entirely predictable fate that befell GameStop’s Icarus-like flight of fancy, whereas the end-game for other popular speculations may ultimately chart a less predictable course.

Be reminded, therefore, of Charles Mackay’s 1841 observation (regarding the Madness of Crowds) that “whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first”.

For those Reddit investing bettors, such history rhymes; their Game has restarted, with a short-squeezing of cannabis stocks just the latest trip to get high on!

What next? – Further investing in Ireland insights

You can read our Feb 2021 investing in Ireland analysis here.

You can check out our other guides on Investing in Ireland here.

You can find out where to get individual investing in Ireland and financial advice in your area here.

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